Cheekpieces can make the difference for Millanisi Boy

1.35 Chepstow  MILLANISI BOY   2.5pts @ 11/1

Looking at the pick of Millanisi Boy’s hurdle form, including a heavy ground novice hurdle win here, plus a good second over fences at Newbury in March, there’s no way Richard Woolacott’s 8yo should be a double-figure price. It seems obvious he needs deep ground & you can put a line through his seasonal debut over CD last month as after being hampered at the 4th, he was never travelling. With the cheekpieces on for the first time, I think we can expect a big run. Everything points to Philip Hobbs topweight Ice Cool Champ being a good staying handicap chaser. Seeing as this is his chasing debut however, his price is going to be too short from a value point of view. The Evan Williams 6yo Billy Bronco shaped as if his seasonal/chasing debut would do him good at Ffos Las last month & I’d prefer him to Twister’s runner Scotchtown, who might need to go right-handed.

December 8, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

Fidux to atone for unlucky CD defeat

2.20 Sandown  FIDUX   5.5pts @ 11/2

Alan King runs two here & despite the betting, I fancy Fidux to beat William H Bonney. Fidux looked desperately unlucky over CD last month when unseating at the last behind the improving mare Maria’s Benefit. The 5yo was gaining on the winner & looked the likely winner, although one couldn’t be definite. Whatever would have happened, seeing as Maria’s Benefit took a 10lb rise plus a hike in grade in her stride when demolishing a class 2 handicap at Ludlow next time by 6 lengths, makes the selection’s subsequent 2lb rise in the weights look pretty lenient. Connections have laid Fidux out for this valuable pot since that run, seeing how well the selection runs at Sandown. Many people were impressed with William H Bonney’s run in the Greatwood Hurdle behind stablemate Elgin, but I’m not among them. Admittedly he was 4lb out of the handicap, but seems the sort best fresh, so any improvement may not be forthcoming. Also, I think he’s crying out for a step-up in trip & a bare two miles on this ground, even on a stiff track, will not be enough of a test. The well-touted Jenkins finished behind William H Bonney in the Greatwood & I have no reason to suppose he won’t do the same again.  Arthur Moore’s Crossed My Mind is bound to be well punted to make his trip across the Irish Sea worthwhile. The 5yo looked a little unlucky at Down Royal last time & is lightly raced, but doesn’t look that well-in over here & his yard struggle for winners these days. Ben Pauling’s A Hare Breath is a possible but the 9yo would do well to win this first time out.

December 8, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

Darebin should be suited by step-up in trip

1.55 Sandown  DAREBIN   4pts @ 4/1 Paddy Power  (9/2 Unibet)

With 5mm rain forecast today, (Thursday) & a frost tonight, the ground is likely to be riding dead, which will not suit a few of these. Gary Moore often likes to run his more promising chasers at this Esher track & his 5yo Darebin may still be on the upgrade seeing as he’s yet to be out of the first two in his three runs over fences. Admittedly, he doesn’t have as much scope as some, but ran his best race as a hurdler here when third in the Imperial Cup last March & gives the impression this step-up in trip will suit. Any improvement on what he’s shown so far would make him hard to beat. Jonjo’s Lithic is similar to the selection in that he’s not really bred for this game, but seems to jump well enough. Any softening in the ground conditions will not be in the 6yo’s favour. Wilberdragon is another for whom softer ground would not suit & he ran as if the handicapper had him last time out. Paul Nicholls 6yo Right Touch also prefers the ground on top, while Dan Skelton’s Right Of Reply makes his chasing debut & this trip looks on the sharp side for the 6yo. Ramore Will looks more of a summer chaser to me.

December 7, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

A Dueling Banjos win will give us deliverance

2.05 Ludlow  DUELING BANJOS  6pts @ 6/1

A competitive line-up & a decent pot for the course, although I do feel Duelling Banjos can give the weight away & outclass this Corrie Cup field. Following a game second at Exeter on his seasonal reappearance, Kim Bailey’s 7yo was well fancied to win the amateur riders handicap chase at Cheltenham’s Open meeting, but after a slow start, nothing went right in the race & he finished 8th beaten just over 7 lengths. This flat track on good ground looks much more up his street & I think we’ll see a completely different performance from the grey. After his game win in the Durham National at Sedgefield last month, Audacious Plan is two wins from three for his new trainer Dr Richard Newland. Good ground is the key to the 8yo & the 5lb rise looks fair, although it might be my empty pocket talking but I still think Washed Ashore looked unlucky in the race. Sour grapes to one side, his chance must be respected here & he looks the obvious danger. I’d just prefer him to the Nigel Twiston-Davis pair of  Better Days & Wicked Willy.  Better Days is up 5lb for his Kempton October win & this looks a much tougher race, while I fear the handicapper may just have Wicked Willy. (That’s not have A Wicked Willy!).  Tom George’s Moss On The Mill makes his seasonal debut & he has a good record fresh. He was outclassed in the final of this series at Haydock in April & the form of his previous Wincanton success has worked out well. The 9yo has only dropped 1lb since his Haydock sixth however, so in some ways has a bit to prove. I think Gary Moore’s Crystal Lad is well handicapped after only two runs over fences, but this trip looks an ask for an inexperienced 5yo who’s not really bred for 3m+.

December 5, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

Elliott second-string Veinard worth a bet

Sunday. Fairyhouse. Bar One Handicap Hurdle.

VEINARD   1.5pts ew @ 25/1

Gordon Elliott runs two in this valuable handicap hurdle, the red-hot favourite Ben Dundee & the outsider Veinard. True to form I’m putting up the outsider. There’s no denying Veinard is a difficult ride. He has to settle & be produced as late as possible, just the sort to land one of these big handicaps when things do drop right. The 8yo’s best three runs last season came in the Coral ie handicap hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, the Betfair hurdle at Newbury & his best run, over CD in a similar value hurdle to this at the Irish National meeting. At the proposed price, it’s worth a small ew bet that he gets lucky. Ben Dundee landed a massive punt when having his first run for the yard at Punchestown in October. That’s easily the best form in the race, even up 10lb & he looks the sort for the Coral Cup at the Festival. It’s debatable whether this drop back to two miles is ideal however. Willie Mullins 4yo Meri Devie is a laughably short price in some quarters. She could win but is terrible value. The other one I’ll mention in this fiendishly difficult handicap is the John Walsh 6yo Davids Charm. After winning two summer handicaps over the intermediate distance, he didn’t seem inconvenienced by the drop back to two miles when narrowly beaten at Listowel in September. The extra 7lb he incurred for that defeat might though.

December 1, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

The Organist sounds like a decent bet

3.35 Newbury  THE ORGANIST  2.5pts ew @ 14/1

After winning the listed mares novice hurdle at Doncaster in March 2016, Oliver Sherwood claimed the winner was the best mare he’d ever trained. Well that certainly did the trick as she was three lengths clear in the similar event at the Cheltenham April meeting when falling at the last & unfortunately the poor girl has failed to win a race since. After three runs over fences, connections discovered that chasing wasn’t really her game & her final two hurdle runs in season 16/17 were a 100/1 seventh in the Mares Hurdle at the Festival followed by a fourth in the mares handicap back at Cheltenham in April where she didn’t get the best of runs. She performed as if the run were needed at Wincanton twenty days ago & this will only be her second run over three miles, the first being that fabled win at Doncaster in 2016. She’s bred for this trip & is to some extent unexposed at it. She also looks to be on a good mark &  owes her owner money as JP McManus paid some 260k for her after that listed win. Alan King’s Beneagles is another who should come on for his last run, over CD 22 days ago. The 5yo also looks to be on a good mark, although we may not see the best of him until he goes chasing. I’d have stamina concerns about Tom George’s Boyhood & I’d be much more interested in Jonjo’s Forza Milan. Bred to be a National horse in time, the 5yo is very well thought of at Jackdaw’s Castle & I rate him a big danger. Hello George is fragile, hence only runs where there is plenty of cut & if the track continues to dry out he may not run.

December 1, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

Vibrato Valtat worth a small wager

2.25 Newbury  VIBRATO VALTAT  1pt @ 25/1

It’s fair to say Vibrato Valtat looked as if he’d fallen out of love with the game in his last two runs for Paul Nicholls, but also that he’d make short work of these from his current mark if bouncing back to his best. I may be in the minority but I thought he ran better than the bare result suggested in the Haldon Gold Cup & his new trainer Emma Lavelle has struck form with a vengeance recently following a quiet start to the season. The most obvious scenario is that we lose a point however & the obvious one would be Venetia Williams Willie Boy to follow up his CD win 22 days ago, especially as he seems likely to get his own way out in front.

December 1, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

November stats

Stake – 124  points

Loss –     33 points

Year to date

Stake –  438 points

Loss –         4 points

 

November 30, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips No Comments

Rebel Ace worth a small bet

2.55 Thurles  REBEL ACE  1pt ew @ 25/1

Despite having a suspicion  that Rebel Ace might be better suited by an extra half-mile, the price of Liam Burke’s 6yo dictates we should have an interest. In his limited hurdling history, the selection has always run well in his second run following a break & will be well suited by the very soft ground & uphill finish. The trainer has gone close a couple of times recently with his limited string & I can see a big run from the unexposed hurdler. The favourite & topweight, Gordon Elliott’s 6yo Boudry, will have to jump a lot better than he did at Downpatrick last time out. His high-profile trainer will ensure he’s under-priced. Pat Fahy’s Paddy’s Orient looks more of a threat. His jockey may have left it late aboard the 6yo when finishing third at Fairyhouse fifteen days ago & providing this drop in trip doesn’t inconvenience him, he’d be the one to beat. The JP McManus owned  Banksoftheshannon makes his handicap debut after three maiden hurdle runs & must be respected, although what the 4yo has shown so far would not be good enough.

 

November 30, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

Bastien can vindicate yard’s confidence

1.40 Towcester  BASTIEN  4pts @ 4/1

A competitive hurdle for the track & I think the winner will come from the head of the handicap. Following a strong-finishing third at Sandown in a race not run to suit, Alan King’s 6yo is well fancied to make amends over this stiff course, with a decent pace guaranteed. The dual-novice hurdle winner is due to go chasing next season, but not before what connections hope will be a lucrative season in handicap hurdles. Golan Fortune won that Sandown race & I think Phil Middleton’s 5yo is the one to beat again here. The selection has a 4lb pull for two lengths so there shouldn’t be much in it, but the King stable confidence sways me.  Who’s My Jockey, representing the Hobbs/Johnson combination & a half-brother to Hurricane Fly, looks a promising sort & is likely to go off favourite. On his novice hurdle form his mark of 123 doesn’t look over-generous, but he is on the upgrade, so can’t be under-estimated. Nick Gifford’s Brown Bear caused a bit of a surprise when winning at Ascot earlier in the month & notching a hat-trick in the process. He’s up another 8lb for that win but this stiffer test should suit & he’s won at the course before. I think Tempuran had the run of the race at Ludlow last time & may struggle from 10lb higher, but the Stuart Edmunds 6yo Now McGinty definitely catches the eye off 11-1 in his first handicap. This step-up in trip at the stiffest course in the country will definitely suit him but the drying ground may well not.

November 29, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment