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October 18, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips No Comments

Cool MaCavity looks ready to pounce

3.10 Towcester  COOL MACAVITY  6pts @ 7/2 R4

Cool MaCavity ran a cracker on the flat at Newbury in August when, after a year off & starting at odds of 50/1, he was beaten under two lengths. He contests his first hurdle for seventeen months from his lowest ever handicap mark, 5lb lower when last successful at Plumpton just over two years ago. He’s obviously on a good mark, the 9yo won at the 2014 Punchestown festival & I have no issues with this very stiff course seeing as he stayed so well on the flat. Also Nicky Henderson has a fantastic record here, not having a runner out-of-the-frame in five years. In fact 11 out of 12 have finished in the first two. This quick ground will be right up Sailors Warn’s street, although I’m far from certain the Ian Williams 10yo will be suited by the track. I can’t have the topweight & likely favourite Hollywood Road. I don’t think the Don Cantillon 4yo is well handicapped off 128 after winning a couple of Huntingdon novice hurdles & I’m far from convinced he will act on this very stiff undulating course. Ben Pauling’s Ravens Tower is better known as a chaser these days & may need this run over hurdles. Richard Hobson’s 11yo Surf And Turf will need every yard of this two miles, even on this demanding track. He could outrun his price but I can’t see where the pace is coming from in this race. Castafiore has been well beaten in both his handicaps so far.

October 11, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

Youngnedofthehill can swoop late to capture the spoils

5.10 Fairyhouse  YOUNGNEDOFTHEHILL   2pts ew @ 16/1  BetVictor.

Gaelic legend has it that a Young Ned of the Hill would swoop down to attack the Cromwellian invaders & here’s hoping his namesake can come storming late up the Fairyhouse hill to capture the 7k prize. Shane Nolan’s hurdler is lightly-raced for a 9yo & when winning by six lengths at Ballinrobe in August, he did it in the manor of a hurdler with more to come. I think a combination of finding the Bellewstown track too sharp & an over-confident ride by jockey Roger Loughran cost him the chance of following-up at the end of August & he never got near the leaders in a soft-ground handicap hurdle at Galway last month. It’s my belief that any horse can be forgiven a bad run at Balltbrit, while the testing going would not have suited our Kings Theatre bred runner. The stiffer Fairyhouse track with it’s three furlong straight & uphill finish allied with the drying surface will suit Youngnedofthehill down to the ground as long as the hold-up tactics are not overdone. Tony Martin’s Creeping Ivy ran a race full of promise when third at Navan a fortnight ago. Looking at his flat rating, the 5yo’s current hurdling mark of 99 is about right & the booking of Davy Russell suggests a big run is expected. The yard is in woeful form however, with just two hurdle winners from sixty-six runners this season. This race usually attracts a couple of 4yo’s & in this year’s edition there are three. I’ll just concentrate on two, Sierra Law & Lex Talionis who I think have similar chances. After winning at Down Royal, Karl Thornton’s Sierra Law was put in his place from an 8lb higher mark at Kilbeggan last time. He’s crept up another 1lb here but still must have good place claims. Noel Meade’s Lex Talionis is much more unexposed & if this drop in trip on better ground suits he’d at least be the best of the three. Like An Open Book comes here as the mare in form, having won a Clonmel a month ago. John Burke’s 7yo clearly likes the Co.Tipperary track having won a bumper there in June & in all fairness, Fairyhouse is not that dis-similar to Clonmel & she did appear to win with a bit in hand last time. What we could do without is the no.2 reserve Mullinavat turning up. He won at Tramore yesterday, (Thursday), by 23 lengths & a 6lb penalty is unlikely to be the reason he gets beat. I doubt that Henry de Bromhead’s 8yo would be declared even if there were two non-runners, but you never know at this game.

October 6, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

Derintoher Yank looks likely to get his own way in front

4.20 Bangor  DERINTOHER YANK   2.5pts ew @ 20/1

Derintoher Yank on occasions has looked the sort to not need much of a reason to chuck it in, but in fairness he has had legitimate excuses in his four runs following a CD second back in May from a 6lb higher mark. Here in August over three furlongs farther he got involved for a battle for the lead & paid the price late on. Prior to that at Perth he patently failed to stay three miles, while before that at Aintree in June he was hampered on the run-in. As for his chasing attempt at Cartmel in May, the less said the better. I feel Donald McCain’s 6yo has so much in his favour here he must warrant an each-way bet. He’s dropped some 8lb in the weights since going handicapping in April. The drop back to the minimum trip on a track which with it’s many turns favours a front-runner, particularly when like the selection here, they look likely to get their own way out in front. The drying ground is a major plus, the first-time hood must be another positive, as does Will Kennedy being in the saddle, a jockey who knows how to get the best from the selection. Finally, Donald McCain has freshened his hurdler up with a two month break & it was this time of the year in 2016 he landed the first of his two novice hurdle wins. Harry Whittingdon’s Salto Chisco is one of several hurdlers I seem to have backed at the wrong time this season, as after disappointing for no apparent reason at Ffos Las in June, the 9yo proceeded to win at Newton Abbot the following month. He’s likely to be popular to follow up here from 4lb higher, but I’m not sure what the form of that six-runner win is worth. One likely to be poor value is the topweight Capitoul. Bought by Dr Richard Newland for 22k at the Arqana Autumn sales in France, he made a winning debut in a heavy ground Ayr maiden hurdle last December, followed by a fall when beaten in a Wetherby handicap the following month. He’s just 2lb lower here & with Sam Twiston-Davis booked is likely to be under-priced. Alex Dunn’s Argus should be spot-on having run on the flat at Chepstow just over a fortnight ago. The ground will suit the 5yo, although I’m not sure his four-runner novice hurdle win warrants a rating of 114. Nicky Henderson’s 6yo Barman is handicapped to go close on his best form but has disappointed in his last two runs. Jonjo runs Pop Rockstar, having his first run since February. Looking at his breeding, the 5yo might need a softer surface than this drying surface will provide.

October 4, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

September Stats

Stake – 44 points

Loss –    9 points

Season to date

Stake –  239 points

Loss         41 points

September 30, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips No Comments

Irish raider Hello Sweetie can bag valuable prize

3.55 Market Rasen  HELLO SWEETIE  2.5pts ew @ 25/1

I must admit, I’d never heard of Co. Down trainer Pat Collins, although it’s hardly surprising seeing as far as I can tell, he only has three horses in training two of which, including the selection, he owns. It goes without saying this 8yo mare is easily the best of the three & this first raid across the Irish Sea in an attempt to plunder a 20k pot must be quite an adventure. Hello Sweetie is a bit of a Ballinrobe specialist having gained her last three successes at the Co. Mayo track & Market Rasen is very similar, albeit slightly sharper, which should suit the selection even more. Drying ground will also be in her favour, as she’s especially suited by a sound surface, which would explain her slightly below par run last time. Overall her hurdling form is comparable to her form over fences, yet she finds herself on a 7lb lower handicap mark here. Another plus is her UK rating is only 3lb higher than her rating back home, whereas Irish handicap hurdlers are usually penalised by 6lb-9lb. I think on bottom-weight & at a likely double-figure price she represents a cracking each-way bet. I’m not so keen on the other Irish runner, Gordon Elliott’s Walkabout. Like the selection, the 5yo is another good-ground Ballinrobe specialist, but he finds himself running 15lb higher than his win there last month & 6lb higher than his Irish rating. He’s not for me.  Favourite looks sure to be Red Tornado on the strength of his second in this course’s big summer hurdle in July, a race he was successful in the previous year.  The 2lb rise looks fair seeing as that looked a slightly stronger event than this & the Dan Skelton 5yo runs this course particularly well. He’d obviously been laid out for that & connections must’ve been particularly disappointed seeing as he’d dropped to just a 1lb higher mark than that win. Given his trainer, he’s likely to be under-priced, seeing as there are several in the race with a similar chance. The Philip Hobbs 5yo I’m A Game Changer, making his seasonal debut, would definitely fall into that category on ability. His main problem is his nerves. He’s sure to be wound-up on his first run & could well boil over & pull his chance away. The first two home in the Stratford handicap run earlier this month, Dear Sire & Caid Du Lin, re-oppose here. Donald McCain’s 5yo Dear Sire should confirm his narrow win on these revised terms & Richard Johnson, the rider of the runner-up that day, prefers I’m A Game Changer. Cloonacool won this in 2015 but has disappointed in these big handicap hurdles since, looking a weak finisher.

September 29, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

King Alfonso to rule over CD again

2.00 Worcester  KING ALFONSO  3pts @ 4/1

After his 12/1 success in a four-runner novice chase here seventeen days ago, I think Dai Burchall’s 8yo looks well worth supporting in his bid to follow up. The 4/11 favourite Azzuri clearly disappointed that day, but there’s no reason to suppose the 119-rated second failed to give his running, which would suggest a mark of 109 the selection has now been given is hardly insurmountable. Going back to 2015 when previously in Dai Burchall’s care, King Alfonso was running in the region of 115-125 over fences, further evidence of his good chance now. Little Pop appeared to put in a lifetime best performance when leading all the way at Market Rasen last month under today’s pilot Zac Baker. On the face of it, a 5lb rise may not stop Twister’s 9yo, but I think he’s much better round the tighter tracks & while Worcester is hardly stiffest course in the UK, it’s certainly more galloping in nature than Market Rasen & Southwell, where Little Pop’s last two wins have been.  Neil Mulholland’s Full ran about as well as could be expected in a novice on his chasing debut over CD at the beginning of the month when a 15l second to what looked a decent prospect in Mad Jack Mytton. The 6lb hike in the weights looked uncalled for however, seeing as the 5yo has never won a race of any description & he now runs from an all-time high in the handicap.  I’m not sure that the drop in trip of half-a-mile will suit topweight Honkytonktennessee. Dan Skelton’s 8yo has looked a bit quirky on occasions & could probably do with coming down in the weights a few pound. What is interesting though is connections might feel the need to  take on Little Pop for the lead to make the race a proper test, which would be good news for us.  Since finishing a good second here over hurdles in May, Mr Kit Cat has been beaten an average of 24l in his three races since, while Indian Voyage hasn’t won for 23 months.

September 28, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

Doitforjoe can do it over fences

2.5 Plumpton  DOITFORJOE  3pts @ 10/3 R4

Despite the yard being in the doldrums at the moment, they haven’t had a winner since June, Doitforjoe looks to have so much in his favour here, he can’t be ignored. He’s run well in four runs from his five so far over fences, on each occasion giving the impression that a step-up in trip to 3m+ will be in his favour. With the mild temperatures forecast this weekend in the south, the ground is likely to ride pretty quick at the Sussex track despite extensive watering, which will suit the selection well, as will the likely decent pace. The trainer’s go-to jockey for fancied runners, Noel Fehily, has been booked & the 7yo’s handicap rating is the lowest he’s ever had over both hurdles & fences. James Bowen takes over from brother Sean on their father’s Fair To Middling who runs here from a bottom weight of 11-7, just 8lb lower than the topweight Fort Gabriel. The 7yo looked held when falling three out at Southwell earlier this month & having been beaten three times from his current mark of 103, will definitely need the 7lb his young jockey claims to get competitive here. The aforementioned Fort Gabriel ran up a fast-ground hat-trick during the summer when able to dominate his fields. You can put a line through his subsequent soft-ground Uttoxeter defeat & he sulked at Stratford a month ago when losing the battle for the lead to the eventual winner Strumble Head. I think David Bridgewater’s 6yo is still capable from his current mark when getting his own way in front, but could once again be taken on for the lead by Little Windmill. Neil King’s 7yo jumps well for a small horse & like his competitors, will love the quick surface. He won’t shirk a battle in his  attempt to dominate but could be in better form. Velvet Cognac needs to improve on his two runs this season to figure.

September 24, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

Fast ground the key to Flashman

4.20 Plumpton  FLASHMAN   5pts @ 3/1  Coral.

Flashman did us a favour back in March when running out an 8l winner & from a 5lb higher mark less William Clarke’s 10lb claim, must have an excellent chance of adding to his good course record on his favoured fast going. Such was the manner of that success, I can’t really see the extra couple of furlongs being a problem & he appeared to run right up to that form when a close second at Fontwell a month ago. At that same meeting, Ramore Will won the extended 2m5f handicap hurdle & will be fancied to make a winning chase debut here. There’s no doubt the 6yo has improved since joining Chris Gordon from Ian Ferguson’s Northern Ireland yard, but I think this is a bit of an ask for the grey to take on seasoned chasers over these tricky obstacles. Neil Mulholland runs two & the danger is likely to come from one of them. With Noel Fehily on Vital Evidence & Tom Scudamore booked for Code Of Law, the jockey bookings may possibly help in telling us which of the two is more fancied. Vital Evidence, moved by Paul Rooney from Kim Bailey to Neil Mulholland earlier in the year, looks the potentially better handicapped, but also has jumping issues & these fences are pretty stiff to negotiate. Code Of Law on the other hand failed to follow-up his August Fontwell win a fortnight ago, running poorly over CD. Noel Fehily rode the 7yo on both those occasions & looks to have jumped ship here.

September 23, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

Oliver’s Gold is the choice for first prize

6.00 Kelso  OLIVER’S GOLD   6pts @ 11/2

Oliver’s Gold should be able to outclass this field. Mark Walford’s 9yo seems to like these tight tracks despite him being a hold-up performer & this summer appears to be in the form of his life. In his last two runs the selection has had the misfortune to run into the Cartmel specialist Wisty, an apparent flying-machine over that sharpest of courses who is three from three over fences there going up 20lb in the process. Although a soft ground winner at Cartmel in May, being out of Kings Best, I think a sound surface suits best & with Jaime Hamilton taking off a handy 3lb, the topweight should take the beating here. In that last run at Cartmel, Oliver’s Gold finished a length behind Nicolas Chauvin, with whom he now has a 1lb pull & who he had beaten some fifteen lengths in the previous run behind Wisty. Formally with Nicky Henderson, Jimmy Moffat’s 9yo will appreciate this quicker surface but with Dickie Johnson aboard, is likely to be no value against Oliver’s Gold. Vengeur De Guye was slaughtered by the selection at Cartmel on soft ground in May & I can’t see him reversing that form on this quicker going. Martiloo is the only last-time winner in the field, winning easily at Perth over a month ago. Pauline Robson’s mare has improved for several breathing operations & I think the 7yo is the danger to ours. The bottom-weight Muwalla is another who looks sure to run well but Lisa Harrison’s 10yo finds it hard to win owing to his own consistency.

September 19, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment