4pt bet at Wetherby available to members

October 18, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips No Comments

Cool MaCavity looks ready to pounce

3.10 Towcester  COOL MACAVITY  6pts @ 7/2 R4

Cool MaCavity ran a cracker on the flat at Newbury in August when, after a year off & starting at odds of 50/1, he was beaten under two lengths. He contests his first hurdle for seventeen months from his lowest ever handicap mark, 5lb lower when last successful at Plumpton just over two years ago. He’s obviously on a good mark, the 9yo won at the 2014 Punchestown festival & I have no issues with this very stiff course seeing as he stayed so well on the flat. Also Nicky Henderson has a fantastic record here, not having a runner out-of-the-frame in five years. In fact 11 out of 12 have finished in the first two. This quick ground will be right up Sailors Warn’s street, although I’m far from certain the Ian Williams 10yo will be suited by the track. I can’t have the topweight & likely favourite Hollywood Road. I don’t think the Don Cantillon 4yo is well handicapped off 128 after winning a couple of Huntingdon novice hurdles & I’m far from convinced he will act on this very stiff undulating course. Ben Pauling’s Ravens Tower is better known as a chaser these days & may need this run over hurdles. Richard Hobson’s 11yo Surf And Turf will need every yard of this two miles, even on this demanding track. He could outrun his price but I can’t see where the pace is coming from in this race. Castafiore has been well beaten in both his handicaps so far.

October 11, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

Youngnedofthehill can swoop late to capture the spoils

5.10 Fairyhouse  YOUNGNEDOFTHEHILL   2pts ew @ 16/1  BetVictor.

Gaelic legend has it that a Young Ned of the Hill would swoop down to attack the Cromwellian invaders & here’s hoping his namesake can come storming late up the Fairyhouse hill to capture the 7k prize. Shane Nolan’s hurdler is lightly-raced for a 9yo & when winning by six lengths at Ballinrobe in August, he did it in the manor of a hurdler with more to come. I think a combination of finding the Bellewstown track too sharp & an over-confident ride by jockey Roger Loughran cost him the chance of following-up at the end of August & he never got near the leaders in a soft-ground handicap hurdle at Galway last month. It’s my belief that any horse can be forgiven a bad run at Balltbrit, while the testing going would not have suited our Kings Theatre bred runner. The stiffer Fairyhouse track with it’s three furlong straight & uphill finish allied with the drying surface will suit Youngnedofthehill down to the ground as long as the hold-up tactics are not overdone. Tony Martin’s Creeping Ivy ran a race full of promise when third at Navan a fortnight ago. Looking at his flat rating, the 5yo’s current hurdling mark of 99 is about right & the booking of Davy Russell suggests a big run is expected. The yard is in woeful form however, with just two hurdle winners from sixty-six runners this season. This race usually attracts a couple of 4yo’s & in this year’s edition there are three. I’ll just concentrate on two, Sierra Law & Lex Talionis who I think have similar chances. After winning at Down Royal, Karl Thornton’s Sierra Law was put in his place from an 8lb higher mark at Kilbeggan last time. He’s crept up another 1lb here but still must have good place claims. Noel Meade’s Lex Talionis is much more unexposed & if this drop in trip on better ground suits he’d at least be the best of the three. Like An Open Book comes here as the mare in form, having won a Clonmel a month ago. John Burke’s 7yo clearly likes the Co.Tipperary track having won a bumper there in June & in all fairness, Fairyhouse is not that dis-similar to Clonmel & she did appear to win with a bit in hand last time. What we could do without is the no.2 reserve Mullinavat turning up. He won at Tramore yesterday, (Thursday), by 23 lengths & a 6lb penalty is unlikely to be the reason he gets beat. I doubt that Henry de Bromhead’s 8yo would be declared even if there were two non-runners, but you never know at this game.

October 6, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

Derintoher Yank looks likely to get his own way in front

4.20 Bangor  DERINTOHER YANK   2.5pts ew @ 20/1

Derintoher Yank on occasions has looked the sort to not need much of a reason to chuck it in, but in fairness he has had legitimate excuses in his four runs following a CD second back in May from a 6lb higher mark. Here in August over three furlongs farther he got involved for a battle for the lead & paid the price late on. Prior to that at Perth he patently failed to stay three miles, while before that at Aintree in June he was hampered on the run-in. As for his chasing attempt at Cartmel in May, the less said the better. I feel Donald McCain’s 6yo has so much in his favour here he must warrant an each-way bet. He’s dropped some 8lb in the weights since going handicapping in April. The drop back to the minimum trip on a track which with it’s many turns favours a front-runner, particularly when like the selection here, they look likely to get their own way out in front. The drying ground is a major plus, the first-time hood must be another positive, as does Will Kennedy being in the saddle, a jockey who knows how to get the best from the selection. Finally, Donald McCain has freshened his hurdler up with a two month break & it was this time of the year in 2016 he landed the first of his two novice hurdle wins. Harry Whittingdon’s Salto Chisco is one of several hurdlers I seem to have backed at the wrong time this season, as after disappointing for no apparent reason at Ffos Las in June, the 9yo proceeded to win at Newton Abbot the following month. He’s likely to be popular to follow up here from 4lb higher, but I’m not sure what the form of that six-runner win is worth. One likely to be poor value is the topweight Capitoul. Bought by Dr Richard Newland for 22k at the Arqana Autumn sales in France, he made a winning debut in a heavy ground Ayr maiden hurdle last December, followed by a fall when beaten in a Wetherby handicap the following month. He’s just 2lb lower here & with Sam Twiston-Davis booked is likely to be under-priced. Alex Dunn’s Argus should be spot-on having run on the flat at Chepstow just over a fortnight ago. The ground will suit the 5yo, although I’m not sure his four-runner novice hurdle win warrants a rating of 114. Nicky Henderson’s 6yo Barman is handicapped to go close on his best form but has disappointed in his last two runs. Jonjo runs Pop Rockstar, having his first run since February. Looking at his breeding, the 5yo might need a softer surface than this drying surface will provide.

October 4, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips 1 Comment

September Stats

Stake – 44 points

Loss –    9 points

Season to date

Stake –  239 points

Loss         41 points

September 30, 2017 by : Posted in Free Racing Tips No Comments